Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA
Posted on: May 12, 2008 1:26 pm
Edited on: May 12, 2008 5:37 pm
I wrote in my O.J. Mayo column that "the make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects is remarkably high."
Then I told you to "check the numbers" if you don't believe me.
Problem is, I didn't provide the numbers and the numbers aren't easy to check. So I've spent the past few minutes checking the numbers for you, and what I've found is indeed remarkable. I took Scout.com's top 10 lists from the Class of 2002 through the Class of 2007, looked at every prospect from those lists and given their current level of basketball.
Check it out ...
-- 2002 --
1. Amare Stoudemire (NBA)
2. Carmelo Anthony (NBA)
3. Raymond Felton (NBA)
4. Paul Davis (NBA)
5. Jason Fraser (Professional overseas)
6. Chris Bosh (NBA)
7. Rashad McCants (NBA)
8. Shelden Williams (NBA)
9. DeAngelo Collins (West Coast Pro Basketball League)
10. Sean May (NBA)
-- 2003 --
1. LeBron James (NBA)
2. Luol Deng (NBA)
3. Ndudi Ebi (Professional overseas)
4. David Padgett (Just finished college)
5. Shannon Brown (NBA)
6. Kendrick Perkins (NBA)
7. Charlie Villanueva (NBA)
8. Leon Powe (NBA)
9. Chris Paul (NBA)
10. Mustafa Shakur (Professional overseas)
-- 2004 --
1. Dwight Howard (NBA)
2. Shaun Livingston (NBA)
3. Al Jefferson (NBA)
4. Rudy Gay (NBA)
5. Josh Smith (NBA)
6. Robert Swift (NBA)
7. Marvin Williams (NBA)
8. Randolph Morris (NBA)
9. Sebastian Telfair (NBA)
10. Malik Hairston (Just finished college)
-- 2005 --
1. Josh McRoberts (NBA)
2. Gerald Green (NBA)
3. Monta Ellis (NBA)
4. Martell Webster (NBA)
5. Louis Williams (NBA)
6. Andray Blatche (NBA)
7. Tyler Hansbrough (Still in college)
8. Julian Wright (NBA)
9. Andrew Bynum (NBA)
10. C.J. Miles (NBA)
-- 2006 --
1. Greg Oden (NBA)
2. Kevin Durant (NBA)
3. Brandan Wright (NBA)
4. Spencer Hawes (NBA)
5. Ty Lawson (Just entered draft early)
6. Thaddeus Young (NBA)
7. Wayne Ellington (Just entered draft early)
8. Chase Budinger (Just entered draft early)
9. Darrell Arthur (Just entered draft early)
10. Paul Harris (Still in college)
-- 2007 --
1. OJ. Mayo (Just entered draft early)
2. Michael Beasley (Just entered draft early)
3. Kevin Love (Just entered draft early)
4. Eric Gordon (Just entered draft early)
5. Derrick Rose (Just entered draft early)
6. Kyle Singler (Still in college)
7. Bill Walker (Just entered draft early)
8. Donte' Greene (Just entered draft early)
9. Jerryd Bayless (Just entered draft early)
10. Nick Calathes (Still in college)
In all, there are 60 players listed. Of those 60, 18 -- including everybody on the 2007 list -- played college basketball this season. So that leaves 42 top 10 players from the past six classes who could've been on an NBA roster this season, and would you believe 38 actually were? The only missing players were Jason Fraser (2002), DeAngelo Collins (2002), Ndudi Ebi (2003) and Mustafa Shakur (2003), and three of those (Shakur, Ebi and Fraser) made a decent salary playing professionally overseas this season.
Anyway, here's the bottom line: The make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects since 2002 seems to be better than 90 percent. That's a stunning number, and it's why it makes sense for runners like Rodney Guillory to try to create relationships with elite prospects at an early age, because basketball is one of the few sports where being an elite level high school player practically guarantees a person will be a professional. There is almost no risk that a top 10 high school player won't make the NBA. So if you could spend $30,000 nurturing a relationship with such a player then it's reasonable to call it a wise investment (as long as you don't get caught, of course).
(It's worth noting this season's All-NBA first team -- Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard -- were all top 10 high school prospects in their respective classes.)
Comments
Reputation: 90
Level: All-Star Since: Mar 12, 2008 
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Posted on: May 13, 2008 1:56 pm
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAgp -how do you leave off BJ Mullens from your 09 list?? he is the new number one prospect for that year. Monroe is just barely in the top 10 according to rivals. Also sorry I used Wagner for my example, didn't know it would have caused such a stir in some people, he just was never as good as he was made out to be period. Even in college and his first year in the league...before he got sick. And if he was sick all this time then all the scouts are just as wrong as me for putting a sick person as a potential NBA superstar.
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Reputation: 93
Level: All-Star Since: Oct 15, 2007
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Posted on: May 13, 2008 2:15 pm
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAJason Fraser was the next big thing coming out of Amityville but surgeries really crushed his career. Him and AJ Price were state title taking home machines. |
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Reputation: 89
Level: All-Star Since: Oct 17, 2006
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Posted on: May 13, 2008 2:17 pm
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAThe top 10 HS players seem to always show up in the NBA. Even though Mayo doesn't recieve as much attention as Lebron did when he was in HS doesn't mean that he's not gonna be as good. I bet anybody that wants to bet, that Mayo will average 20 points a game his rookie season, and will keep that average his second year, he might even be an all-star his first year. I take that back, out of his rookie season he will be the only one to make the all-star game out of the lottery draft, and he might even when the dunk contest. |
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