Parrish: The Thoughts

In the process of working on Friday's column about how successful the straight-from-high-school-to-the-NBA prospects were from 1995 (when Kevin Garnett started the trend) to 2005 (when the NBA ended it) I decided to take a look at the Grizzlies and test a theory I've long believed, that drafting high school players was a solid approach for franchises.

Why the Grizzlies?

1. Because I live in the Memphis area.

2. Because the Grizz have become the laughingstock of the NBA.

So here's what I did: I went back through every draft from 1995 to 2005 and documented what would've happened if the Grizz would've simply taken the first high school player selected after they selected instead of the prospect they actually selected. In other words, I wanted to see what would've happened if the Grizz would've abandoned all thinking with their initinial pick each year and simply selected the high school player that ultimately came off the board after they had already selected whomever they selected.

Here are the results:

1995: There was no high school player picked after the Grizz took Bryant Reeves at No. 6. Thus, this year does not apply.

1996: The Grizz would've had Kobe Bryant (taken 13th) instead of Shareef Abdur-Rahim (taken third).

1997: The Grizz would've had Tracy McGrady (taken ninth) instead of Antonio Daniels (taken fourth).

1998: The Grizz would've had Al Harrington (taken 25th) instead of Mike Bibby (taken second).

1999: The Grizz would've had Jonathan Bender (taken fifth) instead of Steve Francis (taken second). Francis, it's worth noting, never played for the Grizz. He was traded to Houston for a package headlined by Michael Dickerson (taken 14th in 1998).

2000: The Grizz would've had Darius Miles (taken third) instead of Stromile Swift (taken second).

2001: The Grizz would've had Eddy Curry (taken fourth) instead of Pau Gasol (taken third).

2002: The Grizz would've had Amare Stoudemire (taken ninth) instead of Drew Gooden (taken fourth).

2003: The Grizz would've had Travis Outlaw (taken 23rd) instead of Troy Bell (taken 16th).

2004: The Grizz did not draft in the first round.

2005: The Grizz would've had C.J. Miles (taken 34th) instead of Hakim Warrick (taken 19th).

So there you have it.

Clearly, there are some bad scenarios there, Eddy Curry over Pau Gasol in 2001 being one of them. But on the whole the franchise would've been better off taking one high school player after another. And though it's not entirely practical, consider that if the Grizz would've drafted like this and kept all their draft picks (plus what they got in 2006 and 2007 in the draft and via free agency) their starting line-up this season could've been ...

G: Mike Conley
G: Kobe Bryant
G: Tracy McGrady
F: Amare Stoudemire
F: Darko Milicic

Instead, their starting line-up this season was ...

G: Mike Conley
G: Mike Miller
G: Rudy Gay
F: Hakim Warrick
F: Darko Milicic

Which line-up would you rather have?

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...

Holy Bear Shat! But that would mean Kobe would be sayin' "Y'all this ain't L.A." wouldn't it? Now would you believe that any of those players (Kobe, Amare or T-Mac) would still be on the team? Resounding answer- Hell No! Do you even think that the Griz would be playing here in Memphis? Hell no! This is also assuming that they had a front office that doesn't have their heads shoved up their ... well you know, for the majority of the time. Which all leads back to the great old saying: If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it'd all be sh*ts n giggles. Gary give us some real info- like what's going on with Memphis and the Big East or Antigua as the new assistant or Ebanks preparing to sign. Everyone and I mean everyone in this country knows the Griz suck. No one and I mean no one believes they have a chance at getting any better as long as Heisley is owner. He was only willing to go so far into turning the Griz into a contender. He has never really wanted to. He doesn't care about basketball. He has and currently uses the team as a tax write off for business losses. The main reason he has wanted to sell the past couple of years is the failing economy in general. Memphians have come to this realization. The team has been all over the place with their draft choices and they usually suck. They get rid of the only player halfway decent on the team. The big talk of their probable draft pick this year is Brook "Gimme a Effing Break With Another Lousy Draft" Lopez. Unless the Griz end up with the first or second pick- which they won't. And mark my words- THE NEW YORK KNICKS WILL WIN THE DRAFT LOTTERY (Because Stern will rig it like he has rigged college ball to become another NBADL.) So there is no way they will get any better. So Gary, let a Memphian put, what the majority of us here believe, out there: The only thing we are dreaming about here in Memphis is Tiger Big East and National Championships.

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...

You saw the part where I wrote "this isn't entirely practical", right?

Of course, that's not what the Grizz would look like.

But that's also not the point.

The point was to show how contrary to the belief that drafting high school players was bad for the NBA, most NBA franchises would've been better off had they done nothing but drafted the best high school player available when they picked. This exercise proves that point.

As for UofMTigerFan's questions, here are some short answers:

1. There is nothing incredibly new with Memphis and the Big East. The school would love to get in and is positioning itself to get in, but that's been going on for months, if not years. Still, it's unlikely Memphis (or any school) will be asked to join the Big East without something else happening first, like a member being removed or a split within the league. In other words, Memphis to the Big East is probably no better than Step 2 in a multistep process that must begin with a change in the landscape.

2. Either Orlando Antigua or David Cox will join John Calipari's staff, just like I told you last week. My understanding is that nothing is set yet, but that Antigua is the first choice and Cox is second.

3. Ebanks is supposed to announce his decision Sunday. Everybody I know says West Virginia is the likely destination, but to never count Calipari out until the papers are signed. I think that's a solid assessment, for now

UofMTigerFan Reputation: 95 Level: Superstar Since: Apr 15, 2008	Posted on: May 16, 2008 6:17 pm Score: 46 If only they would've taken the HS kids ... Holy Bear Shat! But that would mean Kobe would be sayin' "Y'all this ain't L.A." wouldn't it? Now would you believe that any of those players (Kobe, Amare or T-Mac) would still be on the team? Resounding answer- Hell No! Do you even think that the Griz would be playing here in Memphis? Hell no! This is also assuming that they had a front office that doesn't have their heads shoved up their ... well you know, for the majority of the time. Which all leads back to the great old saying: If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it'd all be shts n giggles. Gary give us some real info- like what's going on with Memphis and the Big East or Antigua as the new assistant or Ebanks preparing to sign. Everyone and I mean everyone in this country knows the Griz suck. No one and I mean no one believes they have a chance at getting any better as long as Heisley is owner. He was only willing to go so far into turning the Griz into a contender. He has never really wanted to. He doesn't care about basketball. He has and currently uses the team as a tax write off for business losses. The main reason he has wanted to sell the past couple of years is the failing economy in general. Memphians have come to this realization. The team has been all over the place with their draft choices and they usually suck. They get rid of the only player halfway decent on the team. The big talk of their probable draft pick this year is Brook "Gimme a Effing Break With Another Lousy Draft" Lopez. Unless the Griz end up with the first or second pick- which they won't. And mark my words- THE NEW YORK KNICKS WILL WIN THE DRAFT LOTTERY* (Because Stern will rig it like he has rigged college ball to become another NBADL.) So there is no way they will get any better. So Gary, let a Memphian put, what the majority of us here believe, out there: The only thing we are dreaming about here in Memphis is Tiger Big East and National Championships. [ Reply to Comment ]
lennon_lives Reputation: 0 Level: Amateur Since: Dec 11, 2007	Posted on: May 16, 2008 11:18 pm Score: 95 This comment has been removed. If only they would've taken the HS kids ...
Gary Parrish Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Feb 8, 2007	Posted on: May 17, 2008 4:38 pm Score: 89 If only they would've taken the HS kids ... You saw the part where I wrote "this isn't entirely practical", right? Of course, that's not what the Grizz would look like. But that's also not the point. The point was to show how contrary to the belief that drafting high school players was bad for the NBA, most NBA franchises would've been better off had they done nothing but drafted the best high school player available when they picked. This exercise proves that point. As for UofMTigerFan's questions, here are some short answers: 1. There is nothing incredibly new with Memphis and the Big East. The school would love to get in and is positioning itself to get in, but that's been going on for months, if not years. Still, it's unlikely Memphis (or any school) will be asked to join the Big East without something else happening first, like a member being removed or a split within the league. In other words, Memphis to the Big East is probably no better than Step 2 in a multistep process that must begin with a change in the landscape. 2. Either Orlando Antigua or David Cox will join John Calipari's staff, just like I told you last week. My understanding is that nothing is set yet, but that Antigua is the first choice and Cox is second. 3. Ebanks is supposed to announce his decision Sunday. Everybody I know says West Virginia is the likely destination, but to never count Calipari out until the papers are signed. I think that's a solid assessment, for now [ Reply to Comment ]

Gary Parrish

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...

If only they would've taken the HS kids ...